APO Research

Hardening Australia: Climate change and national disaster resilience
Athol Yates, Anthony Bergin Australian Strategic Policy Institute11 August, 2009 This report warns that as a result of climate change, disasters are likely to become larger, more complex, occur simultaneously and in regions that have either not experienced the natural hazard previously or at the same intensity or frequency.

The economic impact of the CPRS and modifications to the CPRS
Frontier Economics11 August, 2009 This report commissioned by the coalition and Senator Xenophon examines the opportunities to improve the CPRS in terms of lowering the economic costs and, consequently, potentially tightening the emissions target.

Zero-sum game? The human dimensions of emissions trading
Josh Fear, Richard Denniss The Australia Institute17 August, 2009 The Rudd Government is at odds with a majority of Australians in prioritising the needs of business in its climate-change policy, according to this paper by The Australia Institute.

A new climate strategy beyond 2012: lessons from monetary history
Warwick McKibbin Lowy Institute for International Policy12 August, 2009 Warwick McKibbin outlines the key features that are needed in a new climate change framework beyond Kyoto, drawing on lessons from monetary history.

Beyond abstraction: moving the public on climate action
Most believe climate change is a serious problem but are not committed to making the hard choices needed to deal with it. Feature - Doug Struck - posted 23/6/2009

Climate change: models and their limitations
It is important that climate change models remain a tool of climate science and not a tool of advocacy. Feature - Ian Read - posted 23/6/2009

What we have is the failure to communicate
There is good evidence that the Australian public is concerned about climate change and wants decision makers to act. Feature - Leslie Cannold - posted 23/6/2009

Plan B: shifting to a low carbon future
We need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions in a way that reflects the urgency of climate change.Feature - Julien Vincent

Flawed forecasting
Climate models have yet to demonstrate any real success in modelling known climate changes outside the past 100 years or so.Feature - Mark S. Lawson

ETS will cost over 23,510 jobs - Minerals Council says
Wong says modelling points to job increases with ETS
Prof Garnaut says that ETS legislation must be passed
Speculations that emissions trading will not be passed
Emissions scheme would create 30,000 jobs: report

Uncertainty and climate change policy

John Quiggin / Economic Analysis and Policy
This paper consists of a summary of the main sources of uncertainty about climate change, and a discussion of the major implications for economic analysis and the formulation of climate policy. Posted 02-12-2008

EXPECTING THE UNEXPECTED: MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY

To estimate the emissions reductions and costs of a climate policy, analysts usually compare a policy scenario with a baseline scenario of future economic conditions without the policy. Both scenarios require assumptions about the future course of numerous factors such as population growth, technical change, and non-climate policies like taxes. The results are only reliable to the extent that the future turns out to be reasonably close to the assumptions that went into the model.
In this paper we examine the effects of unanticipated macroeconomic shocks to growth in developing countries or a global financial crisis on the performance of three climate policy regimes: a globally-harmonized carbon tax; a global cap and trade system; and the McKibbin-Wilcoxen hybrid. We use the G-Cubed dynamic general equilibrium model to explore how the shocks would affect emissions, prices, incomes, and wealth under each regime. We consider how the different climate policies tend to increase or decrease the shock’s effect in the global economy and draw inferences about which policy approaches might better withstand such shocks.
We find that a global cap and trade regime significantly changes the way growth shocks would otherwise be transmitted between regions while price-based systems such as a global carbon tax or a hybrid policy do not. Moreover, in the case of a financial meltdown, a price based system enables significant emissions reductions at low economic cost whereas a quantity target base system loses the opportunity for low cost emission reduction reductions because the target is fixed.

Regulating carbon emissions

ANU economist Warwick McKibbin warns that cap and trade carbon emissions schemes are likely to fail when unexpected financial shocks occur and markets become volatile. He outlines the McKibbin- Wilcoxen hybrid model that he says will reduce economic uncertainty, achieve carbon reduction targets and have a better chance of long term success.

The economic costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions: understanding the Treasury modelling

David Gruen / Treasury
The climate change modelling exercise is the most extensive modelling exercise ever undertaken by the Australian Treasury. This presentation summarises the Treasury report, Australia’s Low Pollution Future, released on 30 October. Posted 12-11-2008

Australia's low pollution future: the economics of climate change mitigation

This report presents the results of the Treasury's economic modelling of the potential economic impacts of reducing emissions over the medium and long term. It spans global, national and sectoral scales, and looks at distributional impacts, such as the implications of emission pricing for the goods and services that households consume.